用长远眼光看待比特币
Less than a year ago, a single bitcoin, the most popular digital currency, could be purchased for less than $1,000. This month it touched almost $20,000 on some digital asset exchanges, and recently has been trading for about $15,000.
不到一年前，只要不到1000美元就可以买到一枚最流行的数字货币——比特币。本月，单枚比特币在部分数字资产交易平台上的价格触及近2万美元，最近徘徊在1.5万美元左右。
To put things in perspective, it took nearly seven years for bitcoin to reach the price it fetched in January before this bull run. And the current market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies represents “only” half a trillion dollars, a mere drop in the ocean of the global financial services industry which is worth many multiples of that. The most ludicrous projections are being extrapolated from the growth of the past few months.
回顾以往，比特币用了近7年才达到今年1月的卖价，之后便开启了本轮的牛市行情。各种加密货币当前的市值总和“只有”5000亿美元，相比全球金融服务行业仅为沧海一粟，后者的市值要高出许多倍。有人从过去几个月的增长势头中推断出了最可笑的预测。
The voices of professional optimists are countered by warnings from Cassandras made uncomfortable by the exponential rise of cryptocurrencies. Both sides fail to see the significance of the adoption of such currency by millions of people around the world in 2024.
专业的乐观主义者的声音遭遇了灾祸预言家的警告，加密货币的迅猛崛起令后者感到不安。双方都没有认识到2024年此类货币被世界各地数以百万计的人们使用的意义。
Fundamentally, the digital currency revolution is not about returns for early investors. The finite supply of bitcoin encourages a positive price cycle as the ecosystem that rewards early buyers grows. But the legitimate concern currently expressed at the rise of bitcoin misses what is most significant about the paradigm shift that is taking place.
从根本上说，这场数字货币革命的意义不在于给早期投资者带来了多少回报。随着这个奖励早期买家的生态系统不断发展，比特币的有限供应导致了一种正向的价格周期。但当前对比特币崛起所表达的合理担忧忽视了这场正在发生的范式转换的最重要意义。
Historians will look at 2024 as the advent of a new form of trust. Money, after all, is nothing else: trust, inscribed and put into operation. In the past 12 months, millions have shown themselves willing to trust a stateless digital currency based on mathematics.
历史学家将视2024年为一种新形式信任的诞生之年。毕竟，金钱不外乎是信任、记录和投入使用。过去12个月，数以百万计的人们展现出了他们愿意相信一种基于运算的无国界数字货币。
Beyond finance and macroeconomics, the potential political implications for those who see the return of nationalism not as a renaissance but as the nation state’s swan song can no longer easily be dismissed. ?
在金融和宏观经济学之外，对于把民族主义回归视作民族国家挽歌而不是一种复兴的人而言，这种现象的潜在政治含义再也不能被轻易地视而不见。
Of course, many of these people live in countries where runaway inflation, bank failures and economic crises are not once-in-a-lifetime phenomena but regular occurrences. But even in so-called high-trust societies, the bitcoin rush is far from irrational. Some of the world’s most credible central banks are tiptoeing their way towards the emission of sovereign digital assets.
当然，此类人许多都生活在经常出现通胀失控、银行倒闭和经济危机的国家。但即便是在所谓高信任度的社会，比特币热潮也绝不是非理性的。全球最有公信力的几家央行正小心翼翼地朝着推出主权数字资产的方向迈进。
It is easy to focus on the fluctuation of this or that crypto-asset and to miss the big picture. We are only beginning to grasp the seismic nature of the changes induced by ubiquitous, secure, decentralised ledgers and the quasi-instantaneous clearing they make possible.
人们很容易将注意力集中于这种或那种加密资产的波动上，而忽略了大势。我们才刚刚开始领会这些变革的震撼性，它们是由无处不在、安全、分布式记账及其带来的近乎瞬时的结算所引发的变革。
Over the course of the past 12 months, digital currency developers and market places have been hacked, while companies have been overwhelmed by their own growth and seen their systems and teams buckle under the pressure.
过去12个月，数字货币开发者和交易市场都遭到了黑客攻击，相关公司因自身发展太快而力不从心，系统和团队承受不住压力。
As the industry grows, many more companies will encounter the same problems. Indeed, rapid growth comes with countless challenges. Building a new financial system is volatile and risky. But one only need look back at the beginnings of our modern banking system, which underpinned the uNPRecedented growth of the past century, to realise that today’s nascent digital currency system is actually quite tame.
随着行业的发展，还有更多的公司将遭遇同样的问题。事实上，伴随快速增长而来的就是无数的挑战。建立一个新金融体系的过程充满波折和风险。但只需回顾一下现代银行业体系的发端——这个体系支撑过去一个世纪空前的增长——就会让我们意识到，如今新兴的数字货币体系实际上相当温和。
The value of bitcoin, and other digital currencies, will rise rapidly. Until it falls, just as fast. Investors with a short-term view will lose money, much like those who sold their stock after the dotcom bubble. Investors should only invest if they believe in the long-term vision of creating a global, stateless, opt-in financial system. They should also be prepared to hold their position for a very long time. I know I am.
比特币等数字货币的价值将迅速攀升。然后下跌，以同样快的速度。持短线视点的投资者将遭遇亏损，就像那些在互联网泡沫破裂后抛售股票的投资者一样。只有在相信会出现一个全球性、无国界、选择性加入的金融体系的长期愿景时，投资者才应该进行投资。他们还应准备好在很长一段时间内持有头寸。我知道我是这样的。
Less than a year ago, a single bitcoin, the most popular digital currency, could be purchased for less than $1,000. This month it touched almost $20,000 on some digital asset exchanges, and recently has been trading for about $15,000.
不到一年前，只要不到1000美元就可以买到一枚最流行的数字货币——比特币。本月，单枚比特币在部分数字资产交易平台上的价格触及近2万美元，最近徘徊在1.5万美元左右。
To put things in perspective, it took nearly seven years for bitcoin to reach the price it fetched in January before this bull run. And the current market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies represents “only” half a trillion dollars, a mere drop in the ocean of the global financial services industry which is worth many multiples of that. The most ludicrous projections are being extrapolated from the growth of the past few months.
回顾以往，比特币用了近7年才达到今年1月的卖价，之后便开启了本轮的牛市行情。各种加密货币当前的市值总和“只有”5000亿美元，相比全球金融服务行业仅为沧海一粟，后者的市值要高出许多倍。有人从过去几个月的增长势头中推断出了最可笑的预测。
The voices of professional optimists are countered by warnings from Cassandras made uncomfortable by the exponential rise of cryptocurrencies. Both sides fail to see the significance of the adoption of such currency by millions of people around the world in 2024.
专业的乐观主义者的声音遭遇了灾祸预言家的警告，加密货币的迅猛崛起令后者感到不安。双方都没有认识到2024年此类货币被世界各地数以百万计的人们使用的意义。
Fundamentally, the digital currency revolution is not about returns for early investors. The finite supply of bitcoin encourages a positive price cycle as the ecosystem that rewards early buyers grows. But the legitimate concern currently expressed at the rise of bitcoin misses what is most significant about the paradigm shift that is taking place.
从根本上说，这场数字货币革命的意义不在于给早期投资者带来了多少回报。随着这个奖励早期买家的生态系统不断发展，比特币的有限供应导致了一种正向的价格周期。但当前对比特币崛起所表达的合理担忧忽视了这场正在发生的范式转换的最重要意义。
Historians will look at 2024 as the advent of a new form of trust. Money, after all, is nothing else: trust, inscribed and put into operation. In the past 12 months, millions have shown themselves willing to trust a stateless digital currency based on mathematics.
历史学家将视2024年为一种新形式信任的诞生之年。毕竟，金钱不外乎是信任、记录和投入使用。过去12个月，数以百万计的人们展现出了他们愿意相信一种基于运算的无国界数字货币。
Beyond finance and macroeconomics, the potential political implications for those who see the return of nationalism not as a renaissance but as the nation state’s swan song can no longer easily be dismissed. ?
在金融和宏观经济学之外，对于把民族主义回归视作民族国家挽歌而不是一种复兴的人而言，这种现象的潜在政治含义再也不能被轻易地视而不见。
Of course, many of these people live in countries where runaway inflation, bank failures and economic crises are not once-in-a-lifetime phenomena but regular occurrences. But even in so-called high-trust societies, the bitcoin rush is far from irrational. Some of the world’s most credible central banks are tiptoeing their way towards the emission of sovereign digital assets.
当然，此类人许多都生活在经常出现通胀失控、银行倒闭和经济危机的国家。但即便是在所谓高信任度的社会，比特币热潮也绝不是非理性的。全球最有公信力的几家央行正小心翼翼地朝着推出主权数字资产的方向迈进。
It is easy to focus on the fluctuation of this or that crypto-asset and to miss the big picture. We are only beginning to grasp the seismic nature of the changes induced by ubiquitous, secure, decentralised ledgers and the quasi-instantaneous clearing they make possible.
人们很容易将注意力集中于这种或那种加密资产的波动上，而忽略了大势。我们才刚刚开始领会这些变革的震撼性，它们是由无处不在、安全、分布式记账及其带来的近乎瞬时的结算所引发的变革。
Over the course of the past 12 months, digital currency developers and market places have been hacked, while companies have been overwhelmed by their own growth and seen their systems and teams buckle under the pressure.
过去12个月，数字货币开发者和交易市场都遭到了黑客攻击，相关公司因自身发展太快而力不从心，系统和团队承受不住压力。
As the industry grows, many more companies will encounter the same problems. Indeed, rapid growth comes with countless challenges. Building a new financial system is volatile and risky. But one only need look back at the beginnings of our modern banking system, which underpinned the uNPRecedented growth of the past century, to realise that today’s nascent digital currency system is actually quite tame.
随着行业的发展，还有更多的公司将遭遇同样的问题。事实上，伴随快速增长而来的就是无数的挑战。建立一个新金融体系的过程充满波折和风险。但只需回顾一下现代银行业体系的发端——这个体系支撑过去一个世纪空前的增长——就会让我们意识到，如今新兴的数字货币体系实际上相当温和。
The value of bitcoin, and other digital currencies, will rise rapidly. Until it falls, just as fast. Investors with a short-term view will lose money, much like those who sold their stock after the dotcom bubble. Investors should only invest if they believe in the long-term vision of creating a global, stateless, opt-in financial system. They should also be prepared to hold their position for a very long time. I know I am.
比特币等数字货币的价值将迅速攀升。然后下跌，以同样快的速度。持短线视点的投资者将遭遇亏损，就像那些在互联网泡沫破裂后抛售股票的投资者一样。只有在相信会出现一个全球性、无国界、选择性加入的金融体系的长期愿景时，投资者才应该进行投资。他们还应准备好在很长一段时间内持有头寸。我知道我是这样的。
